- Titel
- The economic impact of the Zeitwende
- Untertitel
- Papers on the challenges, implications and strategies for the European defence sector
- Zitierfähige Url:
- https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa2-990531
- Erstveröffentlichung
- 2025
- Datum der Einreichung
- 05.11.2024
- Datum der Verteidigung
- 10.03.2025
- Abstract (EN)
- The Ukraine war following the Russian invasion, the aftermath of COVID-19, Brexit and shifting US geostrategic interests are putting pressure on the German and European defence situation – and have been famously summarised by the German chancellor with the term ‘Zeitenwende’. This combination of crises exposes warfare capability gaps in the European armed forces and capacity constraints of the European defence industry after decades of the peace dividend. The Zeitenwende marks a significant change in the European defence and security environment, requiring a shift in political priorities, a rapid increase in defence capabilities and industrial capacity. Also, more nations are calling for stronger engagement of the EU in the defence sector to overcome these challenges and complete the European defence sector integration that started in the late 1990s. The European defence market, a classic example of a public good with strong state involvement in demand, supply, and regulation, is still divided into 27 fragmented and nationalised markets. It has limited financial resources and personnel, a position that has been made worse by the economic challenges and high inflation rates of the 2020s and is under pressure to make substantial investments in the next generation of advanced defence equipment while ramping up its industrial capacity. This publication-based dissertation offers a three-part economic analysis to contribute to the current academic discussion on European defence and security, which is mainly led by political and security scientists. First, it reviews and analyses contemporary literature on the economic benefits and challenges of European defence sector integration. A key focus is to identify and understand the main players and drivers in the European defence market and outlining reasons for reluctance against defence sector integration by the EU member states as well as scenarios for the future of a ‘European Defence Union’. Second, the dissertation explores most likely future strategies and options for the European defence industrial companies in context of the Zeitenwende, by analysing the unique primary data extracted from 18 semi-structured expert interviews. This analysis focusses on technological advancements in the European defence sector, the potential of mergers and acquisitions, partnerships, joint programmes, and pan-European business opportunities. Third, a quantitative analysis is conducted using an input-output model to assess the economic costs and benefits of the largest upcoming European joint defence procurement programme, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), in terms of GVA, tax returns, and employment.
- Freie Schlagwörter (DE)
- Zeitenwende, Verteidigungsindustrie, Verteidigungsbudget, Industriepolitik
- Freie Schlagwörter (EN)
- defence economics, defence industry, economics, defence budget, european integration
- Klassifikation (DDC)
- 330
- Klassifikation (RVK)
- QO 200
- GutachterIn
- Prof. em. Dr. Arnis Vilks
- Prof. Dr. Vivek Velamuri
- Den akademischen Grad verleihende / prüfende Institution
- HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management, Leipzig
- Version / Begutachtungsstatus
- publizierte Version / Verlagsversion
- URN Qucosa
- urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa2-990531
- Veröffentlichungsdatum Qucosa
- 17.09.2025
- Dokumenttyp
- Dissertation
- Sprache des Dokumentes
- Englisch
- Lizenz / Rechtehinweis
CC BY-NC-ND 4.0